Facebook何去何從？

Emerging Markets Drive Facebook User Growth

5/9的eMarketer指出

“India, Brazil and Russia, along with the Middle East and Africa, are driving the biggest gains in Facebook’s worldwide user base.”
(參考翻譯→印度、巴西、俄羅斯，以及中東和非洲，是操控Facebook的全球最大用戶群。)

圖一可以看得出，英美和西歐等地，Facebook使用者預估成長顯著地比其他各地低很多，甚至有研調單位指出，某些區域的Facebook使用率在下滑。英國衛報The Guardian發表一篇《Facebook loses millions of users as biggest markets peak》，其中提到

 “In the last month, the world's largest social network has lost 6m US visitors, a 4% fall, according to analysis firm SocialBakers. In the UK, 1.4m fewer users checked in last month, a fall of 4.5%. The declines are sustained. In the last six months, Facebook has lost nearly 9m monthly visitors in the US and 2m in the UK.”
(參考翻譯→根據分析機構SocialBakers，上個月，全球最大的社群媒體Facebook，在美國就失去了600萬用戶，跌幅4%。而在英國，單月登入用戶也少了140萬，等同4.5%下滑。這些現象是持續的，過去六個月裡面，Facebook在美國和英國就分別損失了900萬和200萬用戶。)

圖一：Facebook User Growth Worldwide by Region and Country, 2011-2017

即使SocialBakers在事後發表了一篇聲明《Clarification to Guardian on Facebook Losing UK Users》， 表示說

“This is especially important because Facebook measures by Monthly Active Users. This is one of the fairest methods of measurement in the industry and has been used since the days of social messaging platforms like AIM and ICQ – Monthly Active Users count (MAU).”
(參考翻譯→因為Facebook是以每月活躍用戶數(Monthly Active Users, MAU)來測量，這一點尤其重要。這是最公平的方法之一，像是從古至今的AIM和ICQ社交通訊平台，也都是採用相同的方式。)

同時，文中也提出三點事實聲明，表示英國超過50%滲透率很了不起等來緩頰，如下：

1. Over 50% of UK's entire population is on Facebook – which is amazing!
2. About 15% of people in UK are under 13 years old therefore “not allowed” on Facebook
3. 16.5% of people in UK are older than 65 and typically not on Facebook (only 4% of 65+ year olds out of the 33M are on Facebook in UK)

不過，連eMarketer報導自己都提到很多數據是有可能錯估或低估的：

“Many third-party figures analyzed by eMarketer, while noting declines in desktop usage, did not account for mobile usage of Facebook.”
(參考翻譯→許多採用eMarketer的第三方分析，雖然指出在桌機端使用量的下降，卻沒有交待Facebook在行動裝置的使用。)

 所以，即使有種種滲透率和黏著度下滑的新聞，我們還是可以看到圖二eMarketer對Facebook的全球使用滲透度預估是趨緩增長的。

圖二：Facebook User and Penetration Worldwide, 2011-2017

至於會不會像Eric Jackson(Ironfire Capital LLC創辦人及經理人，也是哥倫比亞商管博士)在Forbes發表的文章《Here's Why Google and Facebook Might Completely Disappear in the Next 5 Years》(參考翻譯→這也是為什麼Google和Facebook在未來5年可能會完全消失)一樣呢？文中提到

“Are companies like Google, Amazon, and Yahoo! obsolete? They're still growing. They still have enormous audiences. They also have very talented managers. But with each new paradigm shift(first to social, now to mobile, and next to whatever else), the older generations get increasingly out of touch and likely closer to their significant decline. What's more, the tech world in which we live in seems to be speeding up.”
(參考翻譯→像Google, Amazon, Yahoo這樣的公司是否已經過時？他們還在成長。他們仍有巨量的客戶。他們也有非常幹練的經理。但隨著每個新的模式轉變(首先是社群、現在是移動裝置、接下來可能是任何東西)，舊世代越來越脫節，他們也可能正接近顯著下滑的階段。更重要的是，我們身處的高科技世界似乎正在​​加快腳步。)

我們看得到Facebook想要不一樣，從收購到6/23發表錄影新功能的Instagram、今日7/3抄襲通訊軟體的貼圖商店開張(沒錯，是免費！免費就是吸引使用者前來的最大誘因)。而我們也看到Facebook Home被多家手機廠商拒絕的消息，Facebook何去何從？我們等著看！

Update@7/4
根據Josh Constine在TechCrunch發表的《Leaked Details Of Facebook’s New Chat Rooms Feature》指出：

“The stakes are high as messaging generates huge amounts of engagement, direct monetization opportunities through ads and sticker sales, and valuable data on who someone’s closest friends are. For tech giants like Apple, Google, and Facebook, messaging encourages platform lock-in, driving time spent on their other products.”(參考翻譯→通訊服務大夯，主要因為使用者忠誠度高，而且又可以透過廣告、圖樣貼紙等，可能直接帶來獲利，還可以觀察朋友間親密程度的指標。對於像是蘋果、Google和Facebook這些科技龍頭，行動通訊可以讓使用者乖乖聽話使用，讓使用者花更多的時間在其他服務上。)

還不知道新的“Host Chat”會如何運作，可參考原文或是Dimension的中文轉貼。
Update@7/4